Brazil's stock markets have already begun to price in Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round victory

Brazil's current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is preparing for his fourth term, facing a strong challenge from Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Recent polls indicated a narrowing lead for Lula, with Bolsonaro gaining momentum as the election approached. In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro surprisingly secured 47% of the votes, while Lula received 46%. Since neither candidate achieved over 50%, a second round will determine the winner on October 25. Brazil has held direct presidential elections since 1989, with only two candidates winning outright in the first round. Historically, the candidate who wins the first round tends to win the second, as seen in Lula's previous victory over Bolsonaro in 2022. Voter concerns include rising living costs, public safety, corruption, and national sovereignty.