CFP. Government's interest rate projection may be overstated

The Public Finance Council (CFP) has revised its budget projections for 2026 and 2027, indicating a slight surplus for 2026 and a deficit for 2027. While the CFP acknowledges the plausibility of the government's fiscal trajectory, it warns of risks that could affect its realization. The CFP highlights a significant deficit in central administration and emphasizes the dependency on social security performance. It also notes a less favorable outlook for tax revenue compared to the government, despite positive expectations for indirect taxes. The CFP identifies potential risks, including international economic conditions and unquantified support for Ukraine, while also recognizing factors that could improve public finances, such as higher inflation and potential revisions to nominal GDP.