Who will gain and who will lose from the change in the number of seats in the constituencies for the Sejm? Calculations by Jarosław Flis

The National Electoral Commission proposed changes to the distribution of parliamentary mandates due to demographic shifts in Poland. Adjustments are needed in 23 out of 41 electoral districts, potentially benefiting PiS and Nowa Lewica while KO and Confederation may lose seats. Political expert Jarosław Flis simulated the impact of these changes based on previous elections, indicating that losses for KO are offset by gains for Nowa Lewica. The current mandate distribution has been in place since 2011, and significant changes are proposed for districts like Warsaw and Wrocław. However, the president vetoed recent electoral code amendments, complicating the implementation of these changes. The Sejm must decide on the adjustments by May 2027, but similar proposals have been ignored for years.