OE2027. Public Finance Council considers surplus plausible but warns of risks

The Public Finance Council considers the government's forecast of a 0.1% budget surplus in 2027 plausible but warns of economic measures that could jeopardize budget targets. The Council has revised its deficit forecast for next year from 0.2% to 0.1% of GDP, reflecting a difference from the government's projected surplus of 275 million euros. The Council's analysis indicates that the central administration's deficit will be the largest since 2017, raising concerns about the overall budget balance. Risks include low wage growth affecting IRS and social contributions, as well as potential economic policy measures that could impact budget goals. The 2027 budget proposal will be discussed and voted on in late October and November.