Upb, Pil 2026 intorno all'1%, risente dell'inflazione, rischi al ribasso

The Italian economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, with GDP growth projected at around 1% in 2026. This growth is impacted by inflationary pressures from rising energy costs and tightening international financial conditions. According to the October 2026 economic report by the Parliamentary Budget Office (Upb), inflation reached 4.2% in September, primarily driven by energy prices. However, the transmission of these price increases to non-energy components is less pronounced than during the 2021-22 crisis, although signs of diffusion are emerging. The GDP forecast aligns with the macroeconomic framework validation for the 2026 Dpfp, but risks remain predominantly downward due to geopolitical tensions and financing conditions.