The Earth is heading towards a warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period

The planet is projected to warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under current climate policies, according to UNEP. Each fraction above 1.5 degrees increases the risk of deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. If all countries meet their climate commitments, warming could reach 2.6 degrees. Even with optimal adherence to climate plans, a rise of 2.1 degrees is expected. Current forecasts exceed the 1.5-degree target, with average temperatures surpassing this threshold for the first time between 2023 and 2025. Experts believe the 1.5-degree goal will likely not be met, but efforts should focus on minimizing and shortening any exceedance.