Budget 2026: the government makes one last effort to avoid a XXL derailment

The French government has confirmed a public deficit forecast of 5.4% of GDP for 2026, a significant increase from previous estimates. This figure is included in the finance bill approved by the council of ministers and submitted to Parliament. The new forecast deviates from the initial target of 4.7% and the 5% outlined in the previous finance law, moving further away from the EU's 3% limit. The High Council of Public Finances has expressed concerns about the fragility of this forecast due to recent economic developments, including a slight decline in economic activity and rising oil prices contributing to inflation.