El mapa electoral: ¿Qué dicen las encuestas en cada provincia?

The electoral map predicts the upcoming elections by simulating them 20,000 times, categorizing seats as secure, probable, or contested. The model uses historical voting data and microdata from surveys to estimate outcomes in each province. It identifies 153 secure seats, 150 probable, and 97 contested, with major competition in larger provinces like Madrid and Barcelona. The methodology involves averaging polls, projecting votes, and accounting for uncertainty based on past elections. The model has proven reliable, accurately predicting outcomes in previous elections, and is designed to handle the complexities of provincial voting dynamics.