Fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall in 2026, but the global total continues to rise

Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, driven by renewable energy growth and the energy crisis from the Iran conflict. Oil emissions are expected to drop by 1.9%, while natural gas will see a 0.3% decline, and coal emissions will rise by 0.6%. Despite this reduction, total CO2 emissions are set to increase from 42.8 billion tons in 2025 to 43.3 billion in 2026, largely due to deforestation and land-use changes. Major emitters like the EU, US, and China will see reductions, while India is expected to increase emissions by 4.4%. Experts emphasize that a single year's decrease does not indicate a peak in global emissions and call for accelerated energy transition for sustained reductions.